Rare Earth Prices Surge Across the Board in January: Neodymium Praseodymium Oxide Up by Over RMB 120,000 per Ton

Rare earth prices have been on a steady upward trend since January, with notable gains in yttrium oxide, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide. Among them, the prices of neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide have both risen by more than RMB 120,000 per ton.

According to data from the Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange, as of January 28, the average price of yttrium oxide stood at RMB 77,000 per ton, a year-end increase of 33.46%; neodymium oxide averaged RMB 732,500 per ton, up 20.08% from the end of last year; and praseodymium oxide hit an average of RMB 733,300 per ton, with a cumulative year-end rise of 19.92%. Prices of gadolinium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium-neodymium metal, praseodymium-neodymium oxide and other varieties have all surged by more than 10%.

This month, Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel Union issued announcements to raise the transaction price of rare earth concentrate for the first quarter of 2026. This marks the 6th consecutive price hike since the third quarter of 2024, driving a linked upward movement of prices across the entire industry.

Supply-side constraints have intensified: the average annual growth rate of China's rare earth mining quotas remains low, with medium and heavy rare earth quotas stable for a long time. Coupled with low inventory levels, price volatility has been amplified. Turmoil in Myanmar has led to tighter exports, and Vietnam's revised laws prohibit the export of rare earth ore, resulting in a tightening global supply of rare earths, especially medium and heavy rare earths. Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) shows that global rare earth ore production reached 390,000 tons in 2024, with China accounting for 270,000 tons (69% of the total). China's annual mining quota stood at 270,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, representing a 15.5 percentage point drop in the growth rate from the previous year.

Demand growth is fueled by emerging sectors: humanoid robot joint motors rely on high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials, while the power systems of eVTOLs and UAVs also require rare earth permanent magnet motors to boost efficiency, reduce weight and extend battery life. CITIC Securities estimates that the demand for neodymium-iron-boron in emerging sectors will reach 33,000 tons in 2035, accounting for 5.5% of the total demand, and rise to 7.6% by 2040. The institution judges that the global rare earth supply-demand gap is likely to expand continuously starting from 2026, with prices moving steadily upward and the industrial chain expected to see improved profitability.

The rare earth industry is entering a new phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with emerging high-end manufacturing driving long-term growth potential.